Project Deliverables (Updated periodically)



  • D2.1 Report on historical trends in climate/water (Task 2.1)
  • D2.2 Report on socio-economic, demographic and population trends in HAD (Task 2.2)
  • D2.3 Report on links between land use and climate (Task 2.2)
  • D2.4 Report on future climate scenarios in HAD (Task 2.3)


  • D3.1 CUWALID model for water and food insecurity in drylands (Task 3.1)
  • D3.2 Report on modeled HAD water/food derived from seasonal forecasts (Task 3.2)
  • D3.3 Report on trends in historical HAD water/food using CUWALID (Task 3.1)
  • D3.4 Report on long-term projections of water/food in HAD for climate services (Task 3.3)
  • D3.5 Digital technologies for water/food forecasts to end-users (Task 3.4)
  • D3.6 Report on digital technologies design, development, implementation (Task 3.4)








Academic Peer Review Publications Generated by DOWN2EARTH

Student and postdoc work denoted by *.

29) MacLeod, D., Kolstad, E.W., Michaelides, K., Singer, M.B. (2024); Sensitivity of rainfall extremes to unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole events, Geophysical Research Letters, 51(5), e2023GL105258, doi:10.1029/2023GL105258. pdf

28) *Schrieks, T., Botzen, W.J.W., Haer, T., Wasonga, O.V., Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2023); Assessing key behavioural theories of drought risk adaptation: Evidence from rural Kenya, Risk Analysis, doi:10.1111/risa.14266. pdf

27) *Shrieks, T., Botzen, W.J.W., Haer, T., Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2023); Drought risk attitudes in pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Kenya, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 08, 102143, doi:10.1016/j.socec.2023.102143. pdf

26) *Quichimbo, E.A., Singer, M.B., Michaelides, K., Rosolem, R., *MacLeod, D.A., *Asfaw, D.T., Cuthbert, M.O. (2023); Assessing the sensitivity of modelled water partitioning to global precipitation datasets in a data-scarce dryland region, Hydrological Processes, doi:10.1002/hyp.15047, pdf.

25) Hulsman, P., *Keune, J., *Koppa, A., Schellekens, J., Miralles, D.G. (2023); Incorporating Plant Access to Groundwater in Existing Global, Satellite-Based Evaporation Estimates. Water Resources Research, 59(8), e2022WR033731, doi:10.1029/2022WR033731. pdf

24) *Busker, T., de Moel, H., van den Hurk, B., Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2023); Impact-based seasonal rainfall forecasting to trigger early action for droughts, Science of The Total Environment, 898, 165506. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165506. pdf

23) *Odongo, R.A., De Moel, H.,van Loon, A.F. (2023); Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23(6), 2365-2386. doi:10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023. pdf

22) *Rigby, J. M., & Preist, C. (2023); Towards User-Centred Climate Services: the Role of Human-Computer Interaction. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the 2023 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, Hamburg, Germany. doi:10.1145/3544548.3580663. pdf

21) *Koppa, A., *Keune, J., *MacLeod, D.A., Singer, M.B., Nietod, R., Gimeno, L., Michaelides, K., Rosolem, R., Otieno, G., Tadege, A., Miralles, D.G. (2023); A Lagrangian analysis of the sources of rainfall over the Horn of Africa Drylands, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 128(12), e2022JD038408, doi:10.1029/2022JD038408. pdf

20) *MacLeod, D.A., *Quichimbo, E.A., Michaelides, K., *Asfaw, D.T., Rosolem, R., Cuthbert, M.O., Otenyo, E., Segele, Z., *Rigby, J.M., Otieno, G., Hassaballah, K., Tadege, A., Singer, M.B. (2023); Translating seasonal climate forecasts into water balance forecasts for decision making, PLOS Climate, 2(3):e0000138, doi:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000138. pdf

19) *Streefkerk, I.N., de Bruijn, J., Haer, T., Van Loon, A.F., *Quichimbo, E.A., Wens, M., et al. (2023). A coupled agent-based model to analyse human-drought feedbacks for agropastoralists in dryland regions, Frontiers in Water, 4, doi:10.3389/frwa.2022.1037971. pdf

18) *Asfaw, D.T., Singer, M.B., Rosolem, R., Cuthbert, M.O., *Quichimbo, E.A., *MacLeod, D.A., *Rios Gaona, M.F., Michaelides, K. (2023); StoPET v1.0: A stochastic potential evapotranspiration generator for simulation of climate change impacts, Geoscientific Model Development, 16(2), 557-571, doi:10.5194/gmd-16-557-2023. pdf

17) Küçük, Ç., Koirala, S., Carvalhais, N., Miralles, D.G., Reichstein, M., Jung, M. (2022); Observation-based assessment of secondary water effects on seasonal vegetation decay across Africa, Frontiers in Big Data, 5. Brief Research Report, doi:10.3389/fdata.2022.967477. pdf

16) Te Wierik, S.A., *Keune, J., Miralles, D.G., Gupta, J., Artzy-Randrup, Y.A., Gimeno, L., et al. (2022); The Contribution of Transpiration to Precipitation Over African Watersheds, Water Resources Research, 58(11), e2021WR031721, doi:10.1029/2021WR031721. pdf

15) Küçük, Ç., Koirala, S., Carvalhais, N., Miralles, D.G., Reichstein, M., Jung, M. (2022); Characterizing the Response of Vegetation Cover to Water Limitation in Africa Using Geostationary Satellitesm, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14(3), e2021MS002730, doi:10.1029/2021MS002730. pdf

14) *Keune, J., Schumacher, D.L., Miralles, D.G. (2022). A unified framework to estimate the origins of atmospheric moisture and heat using Lagrangian models. Geoscientific Model Development, 15(5), 1875-1898, doi:10.5194/gmd-15-1875-2022. pdf

13) Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Miralles, D.G., McDowell, N., Brodribb, T., Domínguez-Castro, F., Leung, R., *Koppa, A. (2022). The uncertain role of rising atmospheric CO2 on global plant transpiration, Earth-Science Reviews, 230, 104055, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104055. pdf

12) Kolstad, E. W., & MacLeod, D. (2022); Lagged oceanic effects on the East African short rains, Climate Dynamics, 59(3), 1043-1056, doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06176-6. pdf

11) *Deman, V.M.H., *Koppa, A., Waegeman, W., *MacLeod, D.A., Singer, M.B., Miralles, D.G. (2022); Seasonal prediction of Horn of Africa long rains using machine learning: The pitfalls of preselecting correlated predictors, Frontiers in Water, Vol. 4, doi:10.3389/frwa.2022.1053020. pdf

10) *Adloff, M., Singer, M.B., *MacLeod, D.A., Michaelides, K., *Mehrnegar, N., Hansford, E., Funk, C., Mitchell, D. (2022); Sustained water storage in East African drylands dominated by seasonal rainfall extremes, Geophysical Research Letters, 49(21):e2022GL099299, doi:10.1029/2022GL099299. pdf.

9) *Rigby, J.M., Yohannis, A., Preist, C., Singer, M.B., Waema, T., Wausi, A., Michaelides, K. (2022); Climate services for the Greater Horn of Africa: Interviews exploring practitioner perspectives from Kenya and beyond, Climate and Development, 1-13, doi:10.1080/17565529.2022.2074350. pdf.

8) *Koppa, A., Rains, D., Hulsman, P., Poyatos, R., & Miralles, D. G. (2022). A deep learning-based hybrid model of global terrestrial evaporation, Nature Communications, 13(1), 1912, doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29543-7. pdf

7) *Quichimbo, E.A., Singer, M.B., Michaelides, K., Hobley, D., Rosolem, R., Cuthbert, M.O. (2021). DRYP 1.0: A parsimonious hydrological model of DRYland Partitioning of the water balance, Geoscientific Model Development, doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-137. pdf

6) *MacLeod, D., Kniveton, D.R., Todd, M.C. (2021). Playing the long game: Anticipatory action based on seasonal forecasts, Climate Risk Management, 34, 100375, doi:10.1016/j.crm.2021.100375. pdf

5) *Kolstad, E.W., *Macleod, D., Demissie, T.D. (2021). Drivers of subseasonal forecast errors of the East African short rains, Geophysical Research Letters, 48(14), p.e2021GL093292, doi:10.1029/2021GL093292. pdf

4) *Hari, V., Dharmasthala, S., *Koppa, A., Karmakar, S., Kumar, R. (2021). Climate hazards are threatening vulnerable migrants in Indian megacities - Comment, Nature Climate Change, 11, 636–638, doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01105-7. pdf

3) *Koppa, A., Alam, S., Miralles, D.G., & Gebremichael, M. (2021). Budyko-based long-term water and energy balance closure in global watersheds from Earth observations, Water Resources Research, 57, e2020WR028658, doi:10.1029/2020WR028658. pdf

2) *Schrieks, T., Botzen, W.J.W., Wens, M., Haer, T., Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2021). Integrating behavioral theories in agent-based models for agricultural drought risk assessments, Frontiers in Water, 3, doi:10.3389/frwa.2021.686329. pdf

1) Singer, M.B., *Asfaw, D.T., Rosolem, R., Cuthbert, M.O., *Quichimbo, A., Miralles, D.G., MacLeod, D., Michaelides, K. (2021). Hourly potential evapotranspiration at 0.1˚ grid resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present, Scientific Data, 8(224), doi:10.1038/s41597-021-01003-9. pdf

Academic Conference Presentations by DOWN2EARTH

Student and postdoc work denoted by *.

*Busker, T., van den Hurk, B., de Moel, H., van den Homberg, M., van Straaten, C.A. *Odongo, R., and C.J.H. Aerts, J.: Predicting Food-Security Crises in the Horn of Africa Using Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4330,, 2024.

*Odongo, R., De Moel, H., Wens, M., Limones, N., Coumou, D., and Van Loon, A.: From indices to impacts: Understanding the dynamics of drought impacts through socio-economic clustering, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11090,, 2024.

*Streefkerk, I., Aerts, J., de Bruijn, J., Hassaballah, K., *Odongo, R., Schrieks, T., Wasonga, O., and Van Loon, A.: The effect of commercial export farms on drought risk and adaptation of agropastoral communities in the drylands of Kenya, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-676,, 2024.

Libertino, A., Alfieri, L., Poletti, L., Testa, N., Masoero, A., Gabellani, S., Massabò, M., Ouma, J., Amdihun, A., Nshimirimana, G., KiriwaiJ, J. M., Ambukeje, L., Rossi, L., Mouakkid Soltesova, K., and Beynon, H.: Africa Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Early Action System for Strengthening Resilience to Natural Hazards , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5309,, 2024.

*Rios Gaona, M. F., Michaelides, K., and Singer, M. B.: GIRHAF (Gridded hIgh-resolution Rainfall for the Horn of AFrica): a new rainfall product for detailed applications in a region beset by climate hazards, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2567,, 2024.

*Asfaw, D., Singer, M. B., Michaelides, K., Rosolem, R., MacLeod, D., Cuthbert, M. O., et al. (2022). stoPET v1. 0: A Stochastic Potential Evapotranspiration Generator for Analysis of Climate Change Impacts. Frontiers in Hydrology 2022, 528-501.

*Quichimbo, E. A., Singer, M. B., Michaelides, K., Rosolem, R., Macleod, D., Asfaw, D., & Cuthbert, M. O. (2022). Sensitivity of modelled water balance partitioning to the choice of forcing precipitation in the data-scarce Upper Ewaso Ng’iro Basin, Kenya. Frontiers in Hydrology 2022, 301-306.

*Quichimbo, E. A., Singer, M. B., Michaelides, K., Rosolem, R., and Cuthbert, M.: Sensitivity to spatial and temporal resolution in the performance of a parsimonious hydrological model for quantifying water balance partitioning in dryland regions., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3264,, 2022.

Muktadir, M. A., Koppa, A., Claessen, J., MacLeod, D. A., Singer, M., and Miralles, D. G.: Links between land cover change and climate in the Horn of Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10577,, 2022.

MacLeod, D., *Asfaw, D., Michaelides, K., Otenyo, E., Tadege, A., Segele, Z., Otieno, G., Hassaballah, K., *Quichimbo, A., Cuthbert, M., and Singer, M.: Translating seasonal climate forecasts into decision-relevant water security forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2804,, 2022.

*Koppa, A., *Keune, J., MacLeod, D. A., Singer, M., and Miralles, D. G.: Unraveling the Origin of Rainfall over Horn of Africa Drylands, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5330,, 2022.

Cuthbert, M., Quichimbo, E., Asfaw, D., MacLeod, D., Michaelides, K., Rosolem, R., & Singer, M. (2021). Challenges and opportunities in modelling water balance partitioning in East African drylands. Paper presented at the AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts.

*Adloff, M., Singer, M. B., McLeod, D., Michaelides, K., *Mehrnegar, N., *Hansford, E., Funk, C., and Mitchell, D.: Groundwater storage in the Horn of Africa drylands dominated by seasonal rainfall extremes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15470,, 2021.

New Datasets Generated by DOWN2EARTH

New Models Generated by DOWN2EARTH

Academic Non-Peer Review Publications

Other Project Outputs

An EU Horizon 2020 Project funded under grant agreement No 869550