DOWN2EARTH Project Outputs

Project Deliverables (Updated periodically)

WP1

• D1.1 Report on past climate adaptation policy efficacy (Task 1.2)
  
• D1.2 Social science report on community-based fieldwork (Task 1.1)
  
• D1.3 Agent-Based Model (ABM) and data on feedbacks between climate-food security-land use (Task 1.3)
  
  • Publication on ABM development for agropastoralists: doi:10.3389/frwa.2022.1037971.
  • Publication on ABM development for farmers:: doi:10.3389/frwa.2021.686329.
• D1.4 Interdisciplinary report on ABM and outputs for HAD (Task 1.3)
  
• D1.5 Report on national/regional historical climate adaptation policy (Task 1.3)
  • Policy Brief: Climate adaptation, water and food security policies in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia
    
  • Full Policy Report: Climate adaptation, water and food security policies in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia
    

WP2

• D2.1 Report on historical trends in climate/water (Task 2.1)
  
  • Publication on regional climate/water trends: doi:10.1029/2022GL099299.
  • Publication on regional drought: doi:10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023.
• D2.2 Report on socio-economic, demographic and population trends in HAD (Task 2.2)
  
• D2.3 Report on links between land use and climate (Task 2.2)
  
  • Publication on moisture recycling across the HAD:doi:10.1029/2022JD038408.
• D2.4 Report on future climate scenarios in HAD (Task 2.3)
  

WP3

• D3.1 CUWALID model for water and food insecurity in drylands (Task 3.1)
  
  • Publication on model for simulating atmospheric evaporative demand: doi:10.5194/gmd-16-557-2023.
  • Publication on model for simulating hydrology at basin scales: doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-137.
  • Publication on model for simulating rainfall: doi:10.5194/gmd-2023-98
• D3.2 Report on modeled HAD water/food derived from seasonal forecasts (Task 3.2)
  
  • Publication on anticipatory action: doi:10.1016/j.crm.2021.100375.
  • Publication on seasonal forecasts: doi:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000138.
• D3.3 Report on trends in historical HAD water/food using CUWALID (Task 3.1)
  
• D3.4 Report on long-term projections of water/food in HAD for climate services (Task 3.3)
  
• D3.5 Digital technologies for water/food forecasts to end-users (Task 3.4)
  
  • Publication on user-centric technologies: doi:10.1145/3544548.3580663.
• D3.6 Report on digital technologies design, development, implementation (Task 3.4)
  
  • Publication on climate services engagement: doi:10.1080/17565529.2022.2074350.

WP4

• D4.1 Expanded climate/water data networks throughout HAD (Task 4.3)
  
  • Report on new Automatic Weather Stations in Somalia
    
• D4.2 Increased capacity to produce media content on climate adaptation (Kenya) (Task 4.1)
  
  • Executive Summary
  • Training workshops on Climate Reporting in Kenya, Somaliland, Ethiopia
  • BBC Media Action Massive Open Online Course for Reporting on Climate Content in English, Swahili, Somali
    
• D4.3 Regional extension workshops on digital technologies and climate change (Task 4.2)
  
• D4.4 Training workshops for ICPAC staff on CUWALID (Task 4.2)
  
  • Python preparatory training for CUWALID
    
  • CUWALID Training of Trainers, Bristol, UK, 16-20/10/2023
    
• D4.5 Report on machine-learning methods of forecasting (Task 4.3)
  
  • Publication on machine-learning forecasts of drought and early action: doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165506.
  • Publication on maching-learning forecasts for long rains: doi:10.3389/frwa.2022.1053020.
• D4.6 Inclusion of CUWALID-based forecasts in early warning systems (Task 4.3)
  
  • Inclusion of DOWN2EARTH hydrological model outputs within ICPAC’s East Africa Hazards Watch-Water Security Tab
    
• D4.7 Technical workshops on CUWALID for stakeholders (Task 4.2)
  
  • CUWALID Workshop for Stakeholders, ICPAC, Nairobi, Kenya, 27/11/2023
    
• D4.8 Report on future-proof climate adaptation/reslience policy framework (Task 4.4)
  
• D4.9 Regional and international policy engagement workshops (Task 4.4)
  

WP5

• D5.1 Data Management Plan (Task 5.1)
  

WP6

• D6.1 Project website (Task 6.1)
  
• D6.2 Project videos/pamphlets (Task 6.1)
  
  • DOWN2EARTH Promotional Video
    
  • What is a Forecast? Video on access and use of climate information in rural communities produced by BBC Media Action, supported by University of Bristol
    
  • DOWN2EARTH Project Pamphlet 1 - A4 informational sheet
    
  • DOWN2EARTH Project Pamphlet 2 - foldable A5
    
  • DOWN2EARTH CUWALID Pamphlet 1 - A4
    
• D6.3 Communication and Dissemination Plan (Task 6.1)
  

Podcasts

• Living Climate Change Africa - the podcast
  

Webinars

• Webinar series on co-development and dissemination of climate information in Africa, hosted by ICPAC, DOWN2EARTH, CONFER, and FOCUS-Africa
  • Future of Climate Forecasting, 13/07/2023
    
  • Climate Finance, 2/11/2022
    
  • Climate Adaptation, 29/09/2022
    
  • Decision Making, 14/09/2022
    
  • Understanding Seasonal Forecasts in Africa: Q&A With Climate Scientists, 13/10/2021
    

Workshops/Events

• Media Training Workshop On Climate Reporting - Isiolo, ICPAC/BCC Media Action, Isiolo, Kenya, 8-10/08/2023
  
• Media Training Workshop On Climate Reporting - Hargeisa, ICPAC/BCC Media Action, Hargeisa, Somaliland, 28-30/08/2023
  
• Media Training Workshop On Climate Reporting - Addis Ababa, ICPAC/BCC Media Action, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 24-26/08/2023
  
• Climate services for adaptation in Sub-Saharan Africa, European Union Pavilion Side Event, COP27, Sharm-el-Sheik, Egypt, 6/11/2022
  
• Co-development of tailored climate services for multiple socio-economic sectors and stakeholders in Sub-Saharan Africa, World Meteorological Organization Science for Climate Action Side Event, COP27, Sharm-el-Sheik, Egypt, 14/11/2022
  
• DOWN2EARTH Stakeholder Event, ICPAC, Nairobi, 19/09/2022
  
• Hydrological forecasting for drainage basins in Eastern Africa side event at GHACOF 62
  
• Hydrological forecasting for Eastern Africa Side Event at GHACOF 60
  
• Let’s talk about water: Interactive session on novel water forecasting for drylands at GHACOF 59
  
• Presentation on DOWN2EARTH at GHACOF 57
  
• Climate Change in East Africa Film Screening and Q&A for 1st-year Cardiff Univ students in EA1309
  

Academic Peer Review Publications Generated by DOWN2EARTH

Student and postdoc work denoted by *.

27) *Quichimbo, E.A., Singer, M.B., Michaelides, K., Rosolem, R., *MacLeod, D.A., *Asfaw, D.T., Cuthbert, M.O. (In Press); Assessing the sensitivity of modelled water partitioning to global precipitation datasets in a data-scarce dryland region, Hydrological Processes

26) MacLeod, D., Kolstad, E.W., Michaelides, K., Singer, M.B. (In Press); Sensitivity of rainfall extremes to unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole events, Geophysical Research Letters,

25) Hulsman, P., *Keune, J., *Koppa, A., Schellekens, J., Miralles, D.G. (2023); Incorporating Plant Access to Groundwater in Existing Global, Satellite-Based Evaporation Estimates. Water Resources Research, 59(8), e2022WR033731, doi:10.1029/2022WR033731. pdf

24) *Busker, T., de Moel, H., van den Hurk, B., Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2023); Impact-based seasonal rainfall forecasting to trigger early action for droughts, Science of The Total Environment, 898, 165506. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165506. pdf

23) *Odongo, R.A., De Moel, H.,van Loon, A.F. (2023); Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23(6), 2365-2386. doi:10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023. pdf

22) *Rigby, J. M., & Preist, C. (2023); Towards User-Centred Climate Services: the Role of Human-Computer Interaction. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the 2023 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, Hamburg, Germany. doi:10.1145/3544548.3580663. pdf

21) *Koppa, A., *Keune, J., *MacLeod, D.A., Singer, M.B., Nietod, R., Gimeno, L., Michaelides, K., Rosolem, R., Otieno, G., Tadege, A., Miralles, D.G. (2023); A Lagrangian analysis of the sources of rainfall over the Horn of Africa Drylands, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 128(12), e2022JD038408, doi:10.1029/2022JD038408. pdf

20) *MacLeod, D.A., *Quichimbo, E.A., Michaelides, K., *Asfaw, D.T., Rosolem, R., Cuthbert, M.O., Otenyo, E., Segele, Z., *Rigby, J.M., Otieno, G., Hassaballah, K., Tadege, A., Singer, M.B. (2023); Translating seasonal climate forecasts into water balance forecasts for decision making, PLOS Climate, 2(3):e0000138, doi:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000138. pdf

19) *Streefkerk, I.N., de Bruijn, J., Haer, T., Van Loon, A.F., *Quichimbo, E.A., Wens, M., et al. (2023). A coupled agent-based model to analyse human-drought feedbacks for agropastoralists in dryland regions, Frontiers in Water, 4, doi:10.3389/frwa.2022.1037971. pdf

18) *Asfaw, D.T., Singer, M.B., Rosolem, R., Cuthbert, M.O., *Quichimbo, E.A., *MacLeod, D.A., *Rios Gaona, M.F., Michaelides, K. (2023); StoPET v1.0: A stochastic potential evapotranspiration generator for simulation of climate change impacts, Geoscientific Model Development, 16(2), 557-571, doi:10.5194/gmd-16-557-2023. pdf

17) Küçük, Ç., Koirala, S., Carvalhais, N., Miralles, D.G., Reichstein, M., Jung, M. (2022); Observation-based assessment of secondary water effects on seasonal vegetation decay across Africa, Frontiers in Big Data, 5. Brief Research Report, doi:10.3389/fdata.2022.967477. pdf

16) Te Wierik, S.A., *Keune, J., Miralles, D.G., Gupta, J., Artzy-Randrup, Y.A., Gimeno, L., et al. (2022); The Contribution of Transpiration to Precipitation Over African Watersheds, Water Resources Research, 58(11), e2021WR031721, doi:10.1029/2021WR031721. pdf

15) Küçük, Ç., Koirala, S., Carvalhais, N., Miralles, D.G., Reichstein, M., Jung, M. (2022); Characterizing the Response of Vegetation Cover to Water Limitation in Africa Using Geostationary Satellitesm, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14(3), e2021MS002730, doi:10.1029/2021MS002730. pdf

14) *Keune, J., Schumacher, D.L., Miralles, D.G. (2022). A unified framework to estimate the origins of atmospheric moisture and heat using Lagrangian models. Geoscientific Model Development, 15(5), 1875-1898, doi:10.5194/gmd-15-1875-2022. pdf

13) Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Miralles, D.G., McDowell, N., Brodribb, T., Domínguez-Castro, F., Leung, R., *Koppa, A. (2022). The uncertain role of rising atmospheric CO2 on global plant transpiration, Earth-Science Reviews, 230, 104055, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104055. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825222001398. pdf

12) Kolstad, E. W., & MacLeod, D. (2022); Lagged oceanic effects on the East African short rains, Climate Dynamics, 59(3), 1043-1056, doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06176-6. pdf

11) *Deman, V.M.H., *Koppa, A., Waegeman, W., *MacLeod, D.A., Singer, M.B., Miralles, D.G. (2022); Seasonal prediction of Horn of Africa long rains using machine learning: The pitfalls of preselecting correlated predictors, Frontiers in Water, Vol. 4, doi:10.3389/frwa.2022.1053020. pdf

10) *Adloff, M., Singer, M.B., *MacLeod, D.A., Michaelides, K., *Mehrnegar, N., Hansford, E., Funk, C., Mitchell, D. (2022); Sustained water storage in East African drylands dominated by seasonal rainfall extremes, Geophysical Research Letters, 49(21):e2022GL099299, doi:10.1029/2022GL099299. pdf.

9) *Rigby, J.M., Yohannis, A., Preist, C., Singer, M.B., Waema, T., Wausi, A., Michaelides, K. (2022); Climate services for the Greater Horn of Africa: Interviews exploring practitioner perspectives from Kenya and beyond, Climate and Development, 1-13, doi:10.1080/17565529.2022.2074350. pdf.

8) *Koppa, A., Rains, D., Hulsman, P., Poyatos, R., & Miralles, D. G. (2022). A deep learning-based hybrid model of global terrestrial evaporation, Nature Communications, 13(1), 1912, doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29543-7. pdf

7) *Quichimbo, E.A., Singer, M.B., Michaelides, K., Hobley, D., Rosolem, R., Cuthbert, M.O. (2021). DRYP 1.0: A parsimonious hydrological model of DRYland Partitioning of the water balance, Geoscientific Model Development, doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-137. pdf

6) *MacLeod, D., Kniveton, D.R., Todd, M.C. (2021). Playing the long game: Anticipatory action based on seasonal forecasts, Climate Risk Management, 34, 100375, doi:10.1016/j.crm.2021.100375. pdf

5) *Kolstad, E.W., *Macleod, D., Demissie, T.D. (2021). Drivers of subseasonal forecast errors of the East African short rains, Geophysical Research Letters, 48(14), p.e2021GL093292, doi:10.1029/2021GL093292. pdf

4) *Hari, V., Dharmasthala, S., *Koppa, A., Karmakar, S., Kumar, R. (2021). Climate hazards are threatening vulnerable migrants in Indian megacities - Comment, Nature Climate Change, 11, 636–638, doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01105-7. pdf

3) *Koppa, A., Alam, S., Miralles, D.G., & Gebremichael, M. (2021). Budyko-based long-term water and energy balance closure in global watersheds from Earth observations, Water Resources Research, 57, e2020WR028658, doi:10.1029/2020WR028658. pdf

2) *Schrieks, T., Botzen, W.J.W., Wens, M., Haer, T., Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2021). Integrating behavioral theories in agent-based models for agricultural drought risk assessments, Frontiers in Water, 3, doi:10.3389/frwa.2021.686329. pdf

1) Singer, M.B., *Asfaw, D.T., Rosolem, R., Cuthbert, M.O., *Quichimbo, A., Miralles, D.G., MacLeod, D., Michaelides, K. (2021). Hourly potential evapotranspiration at 0.1˚ grid resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present, Scientific Data, 8(224), doi:10.1038/s41597-021-01003-9. pdf

New Datasets Generated by DOWN2EARTH

• Hourly and daily potential evapotranspiration (hPET and dPET) datasets
  

• A Deep Learning-Based Hybrid Model of Global Terrestrial Evaporation
  

New Models Generated by DOWN2EARTH

• DRYP 1.0: A parsimonious hydrological model of DRYland Partitioning of the water balance
  

• StressNet: Code Repository: A Deep Learning-Based Hybrid Model of Global Terrestrial Evaporation

Academic Non-Peer Review Publications

• Hassaballah, K. (2023). Forecasting Water Availability for Effective Planning in the Horn of Africa Drylands, Medium, 4/26/2023.
  

• Khaemba, W. (2023). Water and Food Security Policies for Adaptation in the Eastern Africa Region, Medium, 4/19/2023.
  

• Singer, M.B., Michaelides, K., Adloff, M. (2022). The Horn of Africa has had years of drought, yet groundwater supplies are increasing – why?, The Conversation, 1/11/2022.
  

Other Project Outputs

• Inclusion of DOWN2EARTH hydrological modeling within ICPAC’s East Africa Hazards Watch-Water Security Tab
  

• Reporting on Climate Change - English Language Version, Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) supporting journalists to report on climate and climate change.
  

• Reporting on Climate Change - Somali Language Version, Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) supporting journalists to report on climate and climate change.
  

• Reporting on Climate Change - Swahili Language Version, Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) supporting journalists to report on climate and climate change.
  

An EU Horizon 2020 Project funded under grant agreement No 869550