Project Deliverables (Updated periodically)
WP1
- D1.1 Report on past climate adaptation policy efficacy (Task 1.2)
- D1.2 Social science report on community-based fieldwork (Task 1.1)
- D1.3 Agent-Based Model (ABM) and data on feedbacks between climate-food security-land use (Task 1.3)
- Publication on ABM development for agropastoralists: doi:10.3389/frwa.2022.1037971.
- Publication on ABM development for farmers:: doi:10.3389/frwa.2021.686329.
- D1.4 Interdisciplinary report on ABM and outputs for HAD (Task 1.3)
- D1.5 Report on national/regional historical climate adaptation policy (Task 1.3)
WP2
- D2.1 Report on historical trends in climate/water (Task 2.1)
- Publication on regional climate/water trends: doi:10.1029/2022GL099299.
- Publication on regional drought: doi:10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023.
- D2.2 Report on socio-economic, demographic and population trends in HAD (Task 2.2)
- D2.3 Report on links between land use and climate (Task 2.2)
- Publication on moisture recycling across the HAD:doi:10.1029/2022JD038408.
- D2.4 Report on future climate scenarios in HAD (Task 2.3)
WP3
- D3.1 CUWALID model for water and food insecurity in drylands (Task 3.1)
- Publication on model for simulating atmospheric evaporative demand: doi:10.5194/gmd-16-557-2023.
- Publication on model for simulating hydrology at basin scales: doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-137.
- Publication on model for simulating rainfall: doi:10.5194/gmd-2023-98
- D3.2 Report on modeled HAD water/food derived from seasonal forecasts (Task 3.2)
- Publication on anticipatory action: doi:10.1016/j.crm.2021.100375.
- Publication on seasonal forecasts: doi:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000138.
- D3.3 Report on trends in historical HAD water/food using CUWALID (Task 3.1)
- D3.4 Report on long-term projections of water/food in HAD for climate services (Task 3.3)
- D3.5 Digital technologies for water/food forecasts to end-users (Task 3.4)
- Publication on user-centric technologies: doi:10.1145/3544548.3580663.
- D3.6 Report on digital technologies design, development, implementation (Task 3.4)
- Publication on climate services engagement: doi:10.1080/17565529.2022.2074350.
WP4
- D4.1 Expanded climate/water data networks throughout HAD (Task 4.3)
- D4.2 Increased capacity to produce media content on climate adaptation (Kenya) (Task 4.1)
- D4.3 Regional extension workshops on digital technologies and climate change (Task 4.2)
- D4.4 Training workshops for ICPAC staff on CUWALID (Task 4.2)
- Python preparatory training for CUWALID
- CUWALID Training of Trainers, Bristol, UK, 16-20/10/2023
- Workshop on CUWALID for Disaster Risk Management Team and external stakeholders, ICPAC, Nairobi, 27/11/2023.
- Python preparatory training for CUWALID
- D4.5 Report on machine-learning methods of forecasting (Task 4.3)
- Publication on machine-learning forecasts of drought and early action: doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165506.
- Publication on maching-learning forecasts for long rains: doi:10.3389/frwa.2022.1053020.
- D4.6 Inclusion of CUWALID-based forecasts in early warning systems (Task 4.3)
- Inclusion of DOWN2EARTH hydrological model outputs within ICPAC’s East Africa Hazards Watch-Water Security Tab
- Installation of CUWALID at ICPAC
- Inclusion of DOWN2EARTH hydrological model outputs within ICPAC’s East Africa Hazards Watch-Water Security Tab
- D4.7 Technical workshops on CUWALID for stakeholders (Task 4.2)
- CUWALID Workshop for Stakeholders, ICPAC, Nairobi, Kenya, 27/11/2023
- CUWALID Workshop for Stakeholders, ICPAC, Nairobi, Kenya, 27/11/2023
- D4.8 Report on future-proof climate adaptation/reslience policy framework (Task 4.4)
- D4.9 Regional and international policy engagement workshops (Task 4.4)
WP5
WP6
- D6.1 Project website (Task 6.1)
- D6.2 Project videos/pamphlets (Task 6.1)
- DOWN2EARTH Promotional Video
- What is a Forecast? Video on access and use of climate information in rural communities produced by BBC Media Action, supported by University of Bristol
- Living With Climate Change - Somalia. Funded under DOWN2EARTH as part of BBC Media Action series.
- DOWN2EARTH Project Pamphlet 1 - A4 informational sheet
- DOWN2EARTH Project Pamphlet 2 - foldable A5
- DOWN2EARTH CUWALID Pamphlet 1 - A4
- DOWN2EARTH CUWALID Poster - 3panel
- DOWN2EARTH CUWALID Poster - A0
- DOWN2EARTH Feedback leaflet - A4
- DOWN2EARTH Promotional Video
- D6.3 Communication and Dissemination Plan (Task 6.1)
Podcasts
Films
- DOWN2EARTH Promotional Video
- What is a Forecast? Video on access and use of climate information in rural communities produced by BBC Media Action, supported by University of Bristol
- Living With Climate Change - Somalia. Funded under DOWN2EARTH as part of BBC Media Action series.
Webinars
- Webinar series on co-development and dissemination of climate information in Africa, hosted by ICPAC, DOWN2EARTH, CONFER, and FOCUS-Africa
- Future of Climate Forecasting, 13/07/2023
- Climate Finance, 2/11/2022
- Climate Adaptation, 29/09/2022
- Decision Making, 14/09/2022
- Understanding Seasonal Forecasts in Africa: Q&A With Climate Scientists, 13/10/2021
- Future of Climate Forecasting, 13/07/2023
Workshops/Events
- Sister Projects Climate Services for Africa Policy Workshop, Brussels, June 20, 2024
- Policy Workshop - Nairobi, Kenya, April 29 - May 3, 2024
- Media Training Workshop On Climate Reporting - Isiolo, ICPAC/BCC Media Action, Isiolo, Kenya, 8-10/08/2023
- Media Training Workshop On Climate Reporting - Hargeisa, ICPAC/BCC Media Action, Hargeisa, Somaliland, 28-30/08/2023
- Media Training Workshop On Climate Reporting - Addis Ababa, ICPAC/BCC Media Action, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 24-26/08/2023
- Climate services for adaptation in Sub-Saharan Africa, European Union Pavilion Side Event, COP27, Sharm-el-Sheik, Egypt, 6/11/2022
- Co-development of tailored climate services for multiple socio-economic sectors and stakeholders in Sub-Saharan Africa, World Meteorological Organization Science for Climate Action Side Event, COP27, Sharm-el-Sheik, Egypt, 14/11/2022
- DOWN2EARTH Stakeholder Event, ICPAC, Nairobi, 19/09/2022
- Hydrological forecasting for drainage basins in Eastern Africa side event at GHACOF 62
- Hydrological forecasting for Eastern Africa Side Event at GHACOF 60
- Let’s talk about water: Interactive session on novel water forecasting for drylands at GHACOF 59
- Presentation on DOWN2EARTH at GHACOF 57
- Climate Change in East Africa Film Screening and Q&A for 1st-year Cardiff Univ students in EA1309
Academic Peer Review Publications Generated by DOWN2EARTH
Student and postdoc work denoted by *.
32) *Koppa, A., *Keune, J., Schumacher, D., Michaelides, K., Singer, M.B., Seneviratne, S., Miralles, D.G. (2024); Global dryland self-expansion enabled by land–atmosphere feedbacks, Science, 385(6712):967-972, doi:10.1126/science.adn6833. pdf.
31) *Busker, T., van den Hurk, B., de Moel, H., van den Homberg, M., van Straaten, C., Odongo, R.A., Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2024); Predicting Food-Security Crises in the Horn of Africa Using Machine Learning, Earth’s Future, 12(8):e2023EF004211, doi:10.1029/2023EF004211. pdf.
30) *Rios Gaona, M.F., Singer, M.B., *Asfaw, D.T., Michaelides, K. (2024); STORM v.2: A simple, stochastic rainfall model for exploring the impacts of climate and climate change at and near the land surface in gauged watersheds, Geoscientific Model Development, 17(13):5387-5412, doi:10.5194/gmd-17-5387-2024. pdf.
29) MacLeod, D., Kolstad, E.W., Michaelides, K., Singer, M.B. (2024); Sensitivity of rainfall extremes to unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole events, Geophysical Research Letters, 51(5), e2023GL105258, doi:10.1029/2023GL105258. pdf
28) *Schrieks, T., Botzen, W.J.W., Haer, T., Wasonga, O.V., Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2023); Assessing key behavioural theories of drought risk adaptation: Evidence from rural Kenya, Risk Analysis, doi:10.1111/risa.14266. pdf
27) *Shrieks, T., Botzen, W.J.W., Haer, T., Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2023); Drought risk attitudes in pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Kenya, Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 08, 102143, doi:10.1016/j.socec.2023.102143. pdf
26) *Quichimbo, E.A., Singer, M.B., Michaelides, K., Rosolem, R., *MacLeod, D.A., *Asfaw, D.T., Cuthbert, M.O. (2023); Assessing the sensitivity of modelled water partitioning to global precipitation datasets in a data-scarce dryland region, Hydrological Processes, doi:10.1002/hyp.15047, pdf.
25) Hulsman, P., *Keune, J., *Koppa, A., Schellekens, J., Miralles, D.G. (2023); Incorporating Plant Access to Groundwater in Existing Global, Satellite-Based Evaporation Estimates. Water Resources Research, 59(8), e2022WR033731, doi:10.1029/2022WR033731. pdf
24) *Busker, T., de Moel, H., van den Hurk, B., Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2023); Impact-based seasonal rainfall forecasting to trigger early action for droughts, Science of The Total Environment, 898, 165506. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165506. pdf
23) *Odongo, R.A., De Moel, H.,van Loon, A.F. (2023); Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23(6), 2365-2386. doi:10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023. pdf
22) *Rigby, J. M., & Preist, C. (2023); Towards User-Centred Climate Services: the Role of Human-Computer Interaction. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the 2023 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, Hamburg, Germany. doi:10.1145/3544548.3580663. pdf
21) *Koppa, A., *Keune, J., *MacLeod, D.A., Singer, M.B., Nietod, R., Gimeno, L., Michaelides, K., Rosolem, R., Otieno, G., Tadege, A., Miralles, D.G. (2023); A Lagrangian analysis of the sources of rainfall over the Horn of Africa Drylands, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 128(12), e2022JD038408, doi:10.1029/2022JD038408. pdf
20) *MacLeod, D.A., *Quichimbo, E.A., Michaelides, K., *Asfaw, D.T., Rosolem, R., Cuthbert, M.O., Otenyo, E., Segele, Z., *Rigby, J.M., Otieno, G., Hassaballah, K., Tadege, A., Singer, M.B. (2023); Translating seasonal climate forecasts into water balance forecasts for decision making, PLOS Climate, 2(3):e0000138, doi:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000138. pdf
19) *Streefkerk, I.N., de Bruijn, J., Haer, T., Van Loon, A.F., *Quichimbo, E.A., Wens, M., et al. (2023). A coupled agent-based model to analyse human-drought feedbacks for agropastoralists in dryland regions, Frontiers in Water, 4, doi:10.3389/frwa.2022.1037971. pdf
18) *Asfaw, D.T., Singer, M.B., Rosolem, R., Cuthbert, M.O., *Quichimbo, E.A., *MacLeod, D.A., *Rios Gaona, M.F., Michaelides, K. (2023); StoPET v1.0: A stochastic potential evapotranspiration generator for simulation of climate change impacts, Geoscientific Model Development, 16(2), 557-571, doi:10.5194/gmd-16-557-2023. pdf
17) Küçük, Ç., Koirala, S., Carvalhais, N., Miralles, D.G., Reichstein, M., Jung, M. (2022); Observation-based assessment of secondary water effects on seasonal vegetation decay across Africa, Frontiers in Big Data, 5. Brief Research Report, doi:10.3389/fdata.2022.967477. pdf
16) Te Wierik, S.A., *Keune, J., Miralles, D.G., Gupta, J., Artzy-Randrup, Y.A., Gimeno, L., et al. (2022); The Contribution of Transpiration to Precipitation Over African Watersheds, Water Resources Research, 58(11), e2021WR031721, doi:10.1029/2021WR031721. pdf
15) Küçük, Ç., Koirala, S., Carvalhais, N., Miralles, D.G., Reichstein, M., Jung, M. (2022); Characterizing the Response of Vegetation Cover to Water Limitation in Africa Using Geostationary Satellitesm, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14(3), e2021MS002730, doi:10.1029/2021MS002730. pdf
14) *Keune, J., Schumacher, D.L., Miralles, D.G. (2022). A unified framework to estimate the origins of atmospheric moisture and heat using Lagrangian models. Geoscientific Model Development, 15(5), 1875-1898, doi:10.5194/gmd-15-1875-2022. pdf
13) Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Miralles, D.G., McDowell, N., Brodribb, T., Domínguez-Castro, F., Leung, R., *Koppa, A. (2022). The uncertain role of rising atmospheric CO2 on global plant transpiration, Earth-Science Reviews, 230, 104055, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104055. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825222001398. pdf
12) Kolstad, E. W., & MacLeod, D. (2022); Lagged oceanic effects on the East African short rains, Climate Dynamics, 59(3), 1043-1056, doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06176-6. pdf
11) *Deman, V.M.H., *Koppa, A., Waegeman, W., *MacLeod, D.A., Singer, M.B., Miralles, D.G. (2022); Seasonal prediction of Horn of Africa long rains using machine learning: The pitfalls of preselecting correlated predictors, Frontiers in Water, Vol. 4, doi:10.3389/frwa.2022.1053020. pdf
10) *Adloff, M., Singer, M.B., *MacLeod, D.A., Michaelides, K., *Mehrnegar, N., Hansford, E., Funk, C., Mitchell, D. (2022); Sustained water storage in East African drylands dominated by seasonal rainfall extremes, Geophysical Research Letters, 49(21):e2022GL099299, doi:10.1029/2022GL099299. pdf.
9) *Rigby, J.M., Yohannis, A., Preist, C., Singer, M.B., Waema, T., Wausi, A., Michaelides, K. (2022); Climate services for the Greater Horn of Africa: Interviews exploring practitioner perspectives from Kenya and beyond, Climate and Development, 1-13, doi:10.1080/17565529.2022.2074350. pdf.
8) *Koppa, A., Rains, D., Hulsman, P., Poyatos, R., & Miralles, D. G. (2022). A deep learning-based hybrid model of global terrestrial evaporation, Nature Communications, 13(1), 1912, doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29543-7. pdf
7) *Quichimbo, E.A., Singer, M.B., Michaelides, K., Hobley, D., Rosolem, R., Cuthbert, M.O. (2021). DRYP 1.0: A parsimonious hydrological model of DRYland Partitioning of the water balance, Geoscientific Model Development, doi:10.5194/gmd-2021-137. pdf
6) *MacLeod, D., Kniveton, D.R., Todd, M.C. (2021). Playing the long game: Anticipatory action based on seasonal forecasts, Climate Risk Management, 34, 100375, doi:10.1016/j.crm.2021.100375. pdf
5) *Kolstad, E.W., *Macleod, D., Demissie, T.D. (2021). Drivers of subseasonal forecast errors of the East African short rains, Geophysical Research Letters, 48(14), p.e2021GL093292, doi:10.1029/2021GL093292. pdf
4) *Hari, V., Dharmasthala, S., *Koppa, A., Karmakar, S., Kumar, R. (2021). Climate hazards are threatening vulnerable migrants in Indian megacities - Comment, Nature Climate Change, 11, 636–638, doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01105-7. pdf
3) *Koppa, A., Alam, S., Miralles, D.G., & Gebremichael, M. (2021). Budyko-based long-term water and energy balance closure in global watersheds from Earth observations, Water Resources Research, 57, e2020WR028658, doi:10.1029/2020WR028658. pdf
2) *Schrieks, T., Botzen, W.J.W., Wens, M., Haer, T., Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2021). Integrating behavioral theories in agent-based models for agricultural drought risk assessments, Frontiers in Water, 3, doi:10.3389/frwa.2021.686329. pdf
1) Singer, M.B., *Asfaw, D.T., Rosolem, R., Cuthbert, M.O., *Quichimbo, A., Miralles, D.G., MacLeod, D., Michaelides, K. (2021). Hourly potential evapotranspiration at 0.1˚ grid resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present, Scientific Data, 8(224), doi:10.1038/s41597-021-01003-9. pdf
Academic Conference Presentations by DOWN2EARTH
Student and postdoc work denoted by *.
*Busker, T., van den Hurk, B., de Moel, H., van den Homberg, M., van Straaten, C.A. *Odongo, R., and C.J.H. Aerts, J.: Predicting Food-Security Crises in the Horn of Africa Using Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4330, 2024.
*Odongo, R., De Moel, H., Wens, M., Limones, N., Coumou, D., and Van Loon, A.: From indices to impacts: Understanding the dynamics of drought impacts through socio-economic clustering, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11090, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11090, 2024.
*Streefkerk, I., Aerts, J., de Bruijn, J., Hassaballah, K., *Odongo, R., Schrieks, T., Wasonga, O., and Van Loon, A.: The effect of commercial export farms on drought risk and adaptation of agropastoral communities in the drylands of Kenya, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-676, 2024.
Libertino, A., Alfieri, L., Poletti, L., Testa, N., Masoero, A., Gabellani, S., Massabò, M., Ouma, J., Amdihun, A., Nshimirimana, G., KiriwaiJ, J. M., Ambukeje, L., Rossi, L., Mouakkid Soltesova, K., and Beynon, H.: Africa Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Early Action System for Strengthening Resilience to Natural Hazards , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5309, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5309, 2024.
*Rios Gaona, M. F., Michaelides, K., and Singer, M. B.: GIRHAF (Gridded hIgh-resolution Rainfall for the Horn of AFrica): a new rainfall product for detailed applications in a region beset by climate hazards, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2567, 2024.
*Asfaw, D., Singer, M. B., Michaelides, K., Rosolem, R., MacLeod, D., Cuthbert, M. O., et al. (2022). stoPET v1. 0: A Stochastic Potential Evapotranspiration Generator for Analysis of Climate Change Impacts. Frontiers in Hydrology 2022, 528-501.
*Quichimbo, E. A., Singer, M. B., Michaelides, K., Rosolem, R., Macleod, D., Asfaw, D., & Cuthbert, M. O. (2022). Sensitivity of modelled water balance partitioning to the choice of forcing precipitation in the data-scarce Upper Ewaso Ng’iro Basin, Kenya. Frontiers in Hydrology 2022, 301-306.
*Quichimbo, E. A., Singer, M. B., Michaelides, K., Rosolem, R., and Cuthbert, M.: Sensitivity to spatial and temporal resolution in the performance of a parsimonious hydrological model for quantifying water balance partitioning in dryland regions., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3264, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3264, 2022.
Muktadir, M. A., Koppa, A., Claessen, J., MacLeod, D. A., Singer, M., and Miralles, D. G.: Links between land cover change and climate in the Horn of Africa, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10577, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10577, 2022.
MacLeod, D., *Asfaw, D., Michaelides, K., Otenyo, E., Tadege, A., Segele, Z., Otieno, G., Hassaballah, K., *Quichimbo, A., Cuthbert, M., and Singer, M.: Translating seasonal climate forecasts into decision-relevant water security forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2804, 2022.
*Koppa, A., *Keune, J., MacLeod, D. A., Singer, M., and Miralles, D. G.: Unraveling the Origin of Rainfall over Horn of Africa Drylands, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5330, 2022.
Cuthbert, M., Quichimbo, E., Asfaw, D., MacLeod, D., Michaelides, K., Rosolem, R., & Singer, M. (2021). Challenges and opportunities in modelling water balance partitioning in East African drylands. Paper presented at the AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts.
*Adloff, M., Singer, M. B., McLeod, D., Michaelides, K., *Mehrnegar, N., *Hansford, E., Funk, C., and Mitchell, D.: Groundwater storage in the Horn of Africa drylands dominated by seasonal rainfall extremes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15470, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15470, 2021.
New Datasets Generated by DOWN2EARTH
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Hourly and daily potential evapotranspiration (hPET and dPET) datasets
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A Deep Learning-Based Hybrid Model of Global Terrestrial Evaporation
New Models Generated by DOWN2EARTH
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DRYP 1.0: A parsimonious hydrological model of DRYland Partitioning of the water balance
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StressNet: Code Repository: A Deep Learning-Based Hybrid Model of Global Terrestrial Evaporation
Academic Non-Peer Review Publications
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MacLeod, D., Kolstad, E.W., Michaelides, K., Singer, M.B. (2024). East Africa must prepare for more extreme rainfall during the short rainy season – new study, The Conversation, 3/11/2024.
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Singer, M.B. (2023). Bringing climate forecasts down to Earth, EU Research, Winter 2023 vol. (37), pp. 21 - 23. pdf
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Hassaballah, K. (2023). Forecasting Water Availability for Effective Planning in the Horn of Africa Drylands, Medium, 4/26/2023.
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Khaemba, W. (2023). Water and Food Security Policies for Adaptation in the Eastern Africa Region, Medium, 4/19/2023.
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Singer, M.B., Michaelides, K., Adloff, M. (2022). The Horn of Africa has had years of drought, yet groundwater supplies are increasing – why?, The Conversation, 1/11/2022.
Other Project Outputs
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Reporting on Climate Change - English Language Version, Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) supporting journalists to report on climate and climate change.
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Reporting on Climate Change - Somali Language Version, Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) supporting journalists to report on climate and climate change.
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Reporting on Climate Change - Swahili Language Version, Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) supporting journalists to report on climate and climate change.
An EU Horizon 2020 Project funded under grant agreement No 869550